Business economics does not provide anymethodology for appraising strategic investments, relyingon informal approaches. Conversely, financial economicsoffers us plenty of sophisticated mathematical modelsunsuitable for applications and based on unrealisticassumptions. This paper presents an example of howstrategic investments may be handled with a formal buteasy-to-understand tool. While this paper shows a specificapplication, a real-life case, we think the model hereproposed may be generalized, so contributing to developinga new approach to business decisions. In particular,we think of a fuzzy expert system approach as a convenienttool overwhelming many of the shortcomingsinherent in the ‘‘crisp’’ approaches of the financial literature(DCF methods, options pricing, dynamic programming),while avoiding at the same time the refusal of anymethodology (typical of business economics). The ideahere presented develops some results by Magni et al.(2001) and Facchinetti et al. (2001). An evaluation functionis drawn up via ‘‘if-then’’ rules; the latter are made towork automatically by means of an expert system, whichadequately replicates the evaluation of human experts.A sensitivity analysis is presented to test the soundness ofthe model.
Strategic options and expert systems: a fruitful marriage / Magni, Carlo Alberto; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Vignola, Marina; Facchinetti, Gisella. - In: SOFT COMPUTING. - ISSN 1432-7643. - STAMPA. - 8:3(2004), pp. 179-192. [10.1007/s00500-002-0261-z]
Strategic options and expert systems: a fruitful marriage
MAGNI, Carlo Alberto;VIGNOLA, Marina;FACCHINETTI, Gisella
2004
Abstract
Business economics does not provide anymethodology for appraising strategic investments, relyingon informal approaches. Conversely, financial economicsoffers us plenty of sophisticated mathematical modelsunsuitable for applications and based on unrealisticassumptions. This paper presents an example of howstrategic investments may be handled with a formal buteasy-to-understand tool. While this paper shows a specificapplication, a real-life case, we think the model hereproposed may be generalized, so contributing to developinga new approach to business decisions. In particular,we think of a fuzzy expert system approach as a convenienttool overwhelming many of the shortcomingsinherent in the ‘‘crisp’’ approaches of the financial literature(DCF methods, options pricing, dynamic programming),while avoiding at the same time the refusal of anymethodology (typical of business economics). The ideahere presented develops some results by Magni et al.(2001) and Facchinetti et al. (2001). An evaluation functionis drawn up via ‘‘if-then’’ rules; the latter are made towork automatically by means of an expert system, whichadequately replicates the evaluation of human experts.A sensitivity analysis is presented to test the soundness ofthe model.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
SoftComputing(2004).pdf
Accesso riservato
Tipologia:
Versione pubblicata dall'editore
Dimensione
374.02 kB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
374.02 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri Richiedi una copia |
Pubblicazioni consigliate
I metadati presenti in IRIS UNIMORE sono rilasciati con licenza Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal, mentre i file delle pubblicazioni sono rilasciati con licenza Attribuzione 4.0 Internazionale (CC BY 4.0), salvo diversa indicazione.
In caso di violazione di copyright, contattare Supporto Iris