Does perceived inequality promote abstention and protest voting? A study of the 2022 Italian general election

We focus on the role of perceived economic inequality as a possible antecedent of abstention and protest voting in the 2022 Italian general election. In particular, we hypothesize that citizens’ per- ceived economic inequality (and the perception that it will grow), reinforced by the negative emotions the perception trigger, may undermine citizens’ trust in institutions. We also investigate whether the erosion of trust is associated with abstention (as an exit option) and protest voting, operationalized as voting for Fratelli d’Italia (FdI), i.e. the only party that did not support the Draghi government (as a voting voice option). We analysed data from the two waves of an online election survey conducted by ITANES (the Italian National Election Study) on a quota sample of the Italian adult population and tested a moderated – mediated model aimed at predicting the association between perceived inequality when eliciting negative emotions, and the probability of voting for FdI or not casting a valid vote. The mediating variable was institutional distrust and the moderating variable was (lack of) political interest. The analyses confirmed that perceived economic inequality does play a role in promoting abstention and protest voting.