Research Question: How much the variability in patients’ response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients’ basal characteristics? Design: Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models. Results: Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients’ characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66). Conclusions: The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients’ characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.

The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles / La Marca, A.; Capuzzo, M.; Donno, V.; Mignini Renzini, M.; Giovane, C. D.; D'Amico, R.; Sunkara, S. K.. - In: JOURNAL OF GYNECOLOGY OBSTETRICS AND HUMAN REPRODUCTION. - ISSN 2468-7847. - 50:3(2020), pp. 1-7. [10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878]

The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles

La Marca A.;Capuzzo M.;Donno V.;Giovane C. D.;D'Amico R.;
2020

Abstract

Research Question: How much the variability in patients’ response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients’ basal characteristics? Design: Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models. Results: Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients’ characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66). Conclusions: The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients’ characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.
2020
50
3
1
7
The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles / La Marca, A.; Capuzzo, M.; Donno, V.; Mignini Renzini, M.; Giovane, C. D.; D'Amico, R.; Sunkara, S. K.. - In: JOURNAL OF GYNECOLOGY OBSTETRICS AND HUMAN REPRODUCTION. - ISSN 2468-7847. - 50:3(2020), pp. 1-7. [10.1016/j.jogoh.2020.101878]
La Marca, A.; Capuzzo, M.; Donno, V.; Mignini Renzini, M.; Giovane, C. D.; D'Amico, R.; Sunkara, S. K.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11380/1208338
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