Der Preis der Hoffnung

This essay deals with the history and social establishment of life insurance in early modern Europe. The main hypothesis of this paper is that insurance represents an evolutionary advance whose establishment in modern society cannot be simply explained as a consequence of mathematical or technological development. In fact, insurance mathematics was by then available in the seventeenth century. The core idea of this sociological essay is that the take off of life insurance in modern Europe can be better explained as transition from the calculus of bet to the betting on calculus. This essay also investigates the socio-structural requirements of such transition.