The behaviour of the daily minimum, mean and maximum temperatures was already found to be given by the sum of a deterministic function of the day and a stationary normal process with zero mean. Its standard deviations for the three temperatures observed in the period 1892-1974 are given. This is a measure of the error in the long term prediction of daily temperatures. The normal process is found to be well represented by an autoregressive- moving average process.
Statistical forecasting of daily temperatures / Balestri, Lorenzo; Cecchi, Rodolfo; Marseguerra, Marzio; Morelli, Sandra; Rivasi, Maria Rosa; Santangelo, Renato. - In: EOS. - ISSN 0096-3941. - STAMPA. - 58, n.9:(1977), p. 907. (Intervento presentato al convegno IVth European Geophysical Society Meeting, tenutosi a Munich (Germany) nel 6-9 September 1977).
Statistical forecasting of daily temperatures
BALESTRI, Lorenzo;CECCHI, Rodolfo;MARSEGUERRA, Marzio;MORELLI, Sandra;RIVASI, Maria Rosa;SANTANGELO, Renato
1977
Abstract
The behaviour of the daily minimum, mean and maximum temperatures was already found to be given by the sum of a deterministic function of the day and a stationary normal process with zero mean. Its standard deviations for the three temperatures observed in the period 1892-1974 are given. This is a measure of the error in the long term prediction of daily temperatures. The normal process is found to be well represented by an autoregressive- moving average process.
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