Following the lead of Fama [American Economic Review 65 (1975)269–282] and of other influential articles, such as Mishkin [Journal of Monetary Economics 30 (1992) 195–215], it has become standard to interpret the Fisher effect as the ability of short-term interest rate to predict future inflation. However, in this article we demonstrate that by restricting to zero the instantaneous response of expectedinflation to an interest rate shock, one can identify a disturbance that economic agents, according to the Fisherian framework, should evaluate as transitory. An important implication of this result is that short-term nominal interest rates cannot be interpretedas predictors, at least not long-run predictors, of inflation. We illustrate this result with an empirical application to US postwar data.

On Some Neglected Implications of the Fisher Effect / Ribba, Antonio. - In: EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS. - ISSN 0377-7332. - STAMPA. - 40:2(2011), pp. 451-470. [10.1007/s00181-010-0348-9]

On Some Neglected Implications of the Fisher Effect

RIBBA, Antonio
2011

Abstract

Following the lead of Fama [American Economic Review 65 (1975)269–282] and of other influential articles, such as Mishkin [Journal of Monetary Economics 30 (1992) 195–215], it has become standard to interpret the Fisher effect as the ability of short-term interest rate to predict future inflation. However, in this article we demonstrate that by restricting to zero the instantaneous response of expectedinflation to an interest rate shock, one can identify a disturbance that economic agents, according to the Fisherian framework, should evaluate as transitory. An important implication of this result is that short-term nominal interest rates cannot be interpretedas predictors, at least not long-run predictors, of inflation. We illustrate this result with an empirical application to US postwar data.
2011
40
2
451
470
On Some Neglected Implications of the Fisher Effect / Ribba, Antonio. - In: EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS. - ISSN 0377-7332. - STAMPA. - 40:2(2011), pp. 451-470. [10.1007/s00181-010-0348-9]
Ribba, Antonio
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11380/654035
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