This paper investigates the relationship between real exports and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.
Exports, growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004 / Pistoresi, Barbara; Rinaldi, Alberto. - ELETTRONICO. - (2011), pp. .-.. (Intervento presentato al convegno Economic History Society Annual Conference tenutosi a Cambridge nel 1-3 April 2011).
Exports, growth and causality. New evidence on Italy: 1863-2004
PISTORESI, Barbara;RINALDI, Alberto
2011
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between real exports and real GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality depends on the level of economic development: in the period prior to WW1 the growth of the Italian economy led that of exports, while in the post-WW2 period the causal relationship was reversed with the expansion of exports that determined the growth of the Italian economy.
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