Study of flood hazard in the Castelfranco Emilia area (Modena Province, Northern Italy)

The Castelfranco Emilia area is located in the Po Plain. The Panaro River have periodically caused flooding in the studyarea. The more recent floods took place between 1966 and 1973 (3 events).In order to reduce flood hazards, several meander cuts were carried out along the river. As these interventions resultedto be ineffective, a flow-regulation system was constructed west of Castelfranco Emilia. It consists of a regulating dambuilt across the riverbed and a storage basin bordered by embankments. This structure is operating since 1985 but wasfinished in 1999: no flooding events have occurred since it is in operation.The paper illustrates some aspects of flood hazard induced by the Panaro River, related to the construction of a highvelocity railway in the study area, a tract of the connection between Milano and Bologna.The relationship between precipitation data and the occurrence of a number of flooding events is studied, in order toestablish whether or not a significant relationship between the two can be identified. Furthermore, a distributed dynamichydrological model is constructed for simulation of the spatial and temporal proceedings of a flood event.On the basis of merely precipitation no predictions can be made with respect to the occurrence of a flood event. Theinclusion of alternative routes for the proposed railway allows for the evaluation and comparison of the spatial effects ofa flood event. Critical points in the model are calibration and the calculation of soil saturation prior to the event.