McCallum (1994) sets up a Rational Expectation model for the interaction of monetary policy and the Expectation Theory of the term structure which rationalises some empirical failures of the latter and demonstrates the inappropriateness of usual regression tests for the information in the term structure. In the present paper, we generalize McCallum (1994) two-period model by introducing a different, finance-theoretic characterization of the term premium. Our results still account for those empirical findings which are at odds with the Expectation Theory of the term structure and yet support validity of usual regressions performed to assess the information content of the term structure. Our results depend on the relative magnitude of the relevant parameters in the model and therefore final conclusions have to be left to empirical investigations.
Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates: a generalization of McCallum model / Malaguti, Luisa; Torricelli, Costanza. - STAMPA. - 2:(1997), pp. 271-285.