This paper establishes stylized facts on regional output fluctuations in Europe and the US. Moreover, it proposes a measure of the potential output target of the future European central bank, estimates the potential variance stabilization of a fiscal federation and constructs a regional map of the potential beneficiaries of monetary and fiscal federal policies. The econometric model is an extention of the dynamic factor model a la Sargent and Sims (1977. In: Sims, C.A. (Ed.), New Methods in Business Research. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) where we introduce an intermediate-level shock, which is common to all regions (counties) in each country (state), but it is not common to Europe (US) as a whole. We build on Forni and Reichlin (1996. Empirical Economics, Long-Run Economic Growth (special issue) 21 (1996) 27-42. Review of Economic Studies 65 (1998) 453-473) to propose an estimation method which exploits the large cross-sectional dimension of our data set. Our analysis shows that (i) Europe has a level of integration similar to that of the US and that national shocks are not a sizeable source of fluctuations: around 75% of output variance is explained by global and purely local dynamics; (ii) Europe, unlike the US, has no traditional business cycle; (iii) the core of the most integrated regions in Europe does not have national boundaries;(iv) the future European Central Bank has a potential stabilization target of about 18% of total output fluctuations; (v) a fiscal federation, if implemented, could have a smoothing effect on output in addition to what done by national fiscal policy, which accounts also for about 18% of total output fluctuations. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C51; E32; O30.

Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US / Forni, Mario; Reichlin, Lucrezia. - In: EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. - ISSN 0014-2921. - STAMPA. - 45:1(2001), pp. 109-134. [10.1016/S0014-2921(99)00068-9]

Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US

FORNI, Mario;
2001

Abstract

This paper establishes stylized facts on regional output fluctuations in Europe and the US. Moreover, it proposes a measure of the potential output target of the future European central bank, estimates the potential variance stabilization of a fiscal federation and constructs a regional map of the potential beneficiaries of monetary and fiscal federal policies. The econometric model is an extention of the dynamic factor model a la Sargent and Sims (1977. In: Sims, C.A. (Ed.), New Methods in Business Research. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) where we introduce an intermediate-level shock, which is common to all regions (counties) in each country (state), but it is not common to Europe (US) as a whole. We build on Forni and Reichlin (1996. Empirical Economics, Long-Run Economic Growth (special issue) 21 (1996) 27-42. Review of Economic Studies 65 (1998) 453-473) to propose an estimation method which exploits the large cross-sectional dimension of our data set. Our analysis shows that (i) Europe has a level of integration similar to that of the US and that national shocks are not a sizeable source of fluctuations: around 75% of output variance is explained by global and purely local dynamics; (ii) Europe, unlike the US, has no traditional business cycle; (iii) the core of the most integrated regions in Europe does not have national boundaries;(iv) the future European Central Bank has a potential stabilization target of about 18% of total output fluctuations; (v) a fiscal federation, if implemented, could have a smoothing effect on output in addition to what done by national fiscal policy, which accounts also for about 18% of total output fluctuations. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C51; E32; O30.
2001
45
1
109
134
Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US / Forni, Mario; Reichlin, Lucrezia. - In: EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. - ISSN 0014-2921. - STAMPA. - 45:1(2001), pp. 109-134. [10.1016/S0014-2921(99)00068-9]
Forni, Mario; Reichlin, Lucrezia
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.
Pubblicazioni consigliate

Licenza Creative Commons
I metadati presenti in IRIS UNIMORE sono rilasciati con licenza Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal, mentre i file delle pubblicazioni sono rilasciati con licenza Attribuzione 4.0 Internazionale (CC BY 4.0), salvo diversa indicazione.
In caso di violazione di copyright, contattare Supporto Iris

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11380/305980
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 56
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 42
social impact