Stablecoins and Bank Deposits: Crowding Out or Crowding In?

Abstract. We empirically investigate the effects of stablecoin growth on bank deposits. Focusing on the United States in recent years, we find no evidence that stablecoins crowd out bank deposits. Indeed, using a structural VAR methodology, our results show that an increase in stablecoin circulation causes an increase in bank deposits—that is, we detect a crowding-in effect. These findings are robust to alternative identification strategies. Therefore, our main conclusion is that concerns regarding stablecoin-induced disintermediation may be overstated. Our findings are consistent with the analysis presented in studies such as that by Wang (2025), in which opposing forces—both internal and related to the foreign sector—are at work, and the final outcomes do not necessarily lead to banking disintermediation.