Exploring future circularity scenarios of lithium-ion batteries in the European Union: A system dynamics approach

The European Union’s transition toward climate neutrality is accelerating demand for lithium-ion batteries to electrify the automotive and household sectors. This makes the European region susceptible to vulnerabilities in material supply, end-of-life management, and recycling capacity. Despite growing research on battery circularity, existing models typically address single countries or isolated end-of-life pathways, lacking a comprehensive EU-wide, multi-pathway perspective. This study develops a system dynamics model to assess the long-term evolution of the vehicle and stationary battery market, end-of-life flows, and material recovery across all EU-27 countries up to 2050, integrating country-level heterogeneity and cathode chemistry transitions. The analysis quantifies how the interplay of extended use, remanufacturing, repurposing, and recycling shapes future battery demand, material dependency, and self-sufficiency. Results show that electric vehicles will dominate battery demand by 2050. Phase-out policies and high repurposing rates lower stationary demand, but increase reliance on imports for electric vehicle batteries. Collection and recycling capacity must expand substantially to meet regulatory targets, although recycling infrastructure remains concentrated in a few countries. Under coordinated expansion efforts, recovery of critical raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt could partially meet European self-sufficiency targets. The findings of this study highlight that excessive second-life deployment delays material recovery, whereas balanced integration of remanufacturing and recycling improves circularity and resource resilience. To meet European sustainability objectives, it is essential to implement flexible, chemistry-specific, and regionally integrated strategies. These strategies should connect battery design, collection, and recycling infrastructure to balance circular economy goals with resource security.