Exploring the Implications of the Russo‐Ukrainian War on Natural Gas Usage and Consequent Impacts on Air Quality in Northern Italy

This study examines how the Russo-Ukrainian war affected natural gas consumption and air quality in northern Italy. The conflict disrupted European natural gas supplies, leading to a reduction in residential natural gas use. We investigated how this reduction affected air quality, focusing on residential wood combustion (RWC) as an alternative heating source. Using long-term data from 63 monitoring stations, we observed a significant increase in benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) concentrations—a tracer of wood burning activity—at five locations. In contrast, a decrease in B[a]P was noted at four sites. Meteorological conditions were additionally analyzed and found to favor lower B[a]P concentration compared to previous years. This suggests a localized increase in RWC activity. We also performed chemical transport model (CTM) simulations to estimate the impacts across northern Italy. In a worst-case scenario, the entire reduction in residential natural gas consumption was offset by increased RWC. The simulations showed significant impacts on the population, with higher mortality and lower visibility. Our analysis underscores that global crises affecting local energy use could have significant consequences for the environment and public health.