Illicit animal trade and infectious diseases

Can evasionary practices in the commercial trade of live animals spread infectious animal diseases? We analyze the link between discrepancies in the traded value of live animals that are reported by partner countries – a proxy measure which has been used in the trade literature to uncover evidence on smuggling across items like antiques, cultural property, or natural resources – and infectious animal diseases. The results imply that a 1% increase in illicit live animal trade is associated with a 0.3% to 0.5% rise in infection cases in animals, which is driven by evasionary practices like species mis-classification and under-pricing. Crucially, we demonstrate that robust border inspections effectively curb these risks, offering a practical tool to combat the spread of animal diseases through illicit live animal trade.