A globally applicable “triple A” risk model for essential thrombocythemia based on Age, Absolute neutrophil count, and Absolute lymphocyte count

: We examined the individual prognostic contribution of absolute neutrophil (ANC), lymphocyte (ALC), and monocyte (AMC) counts, on overall (OS), leukemia-free (LFS), and myelofibrosis-free (MFFS) survival in essential thrombocythemia (ET). Informative cases (N = 598; median age 59 years; females 62%) were retrospectively accrued from a Mayo Clinic database: JAK2 59%, CALR 27%, triple-negative 11%, and MPL 3%; international prognostic scoring system for ET (IPSET) risk high 21%, intermediate 42%, and low 37%; 7% (37/515) had abnormal karyotype and 10% (21/205) adverse mutations (SF3B1/SRSF2/U2AF1/TP53). At median 8.4 years, 163 (27%) deaths, 71 (12%) fibrotic, and 20 (3%) leukemic transformations were recorded. Multivariable analysis resulted in HR (95% CI) of 16.5 (9.9-27.4) for age > 70 years, 3.7 (2.3-6.0) for age 50-70 years, 2.4 (1.7-3.3) for ANC ≥8 × 109 /L, and 1.9 (1.4-2.6) for ALC <1.7 × 109 /L. The corresponding HR-based scores were 4, 2, 1, and 1, resulting in an new 4-tiered AgeAncAlc (AAA; triple A) risk model: high (5-6 points; median survival 8 years; HR 30.1, 95% CI 17.6-54), intermediate-2 (4 points; median 13.5 years; HR 12.7, 95% CI 7.1-23.0), intermediate-1 (2-3 points; median 20.7 years; HR 3.8, 95% CI 2.3-6.4) and low (0-1 points; median 47 years). The AAA model (Akaike Information Criterion [AIC] 621) performed better than IPSET (AIC 647) and was subsequently validated by an external University of Florence ET cohort (N = 485). None of the AAA variables predicted LFS while ALC <1.7 × 109 /L was associated with inferior MFFS (p = .01). Adverse mutations (p < .01) and karyotype (p < .01) displayed additional prognostic value without disqualifying the prognostic integrity of the AAA model. This study proposes a simple and globally applicable survival model for ET, which can be used as a platform for further molecular refinement. This study also suggests a potential role for immune-related biomarkers, as a prognostic tool in myeloproliferative neoplasms.