Pattern of distant relapse according to intrinsic molecular subtype in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer: a combined analysis of ShortHER, CherLOB, and two institutional cohorts

Background: All intrinsic molecular subtypes are represented among HER2-positive breast cancer, with implications on clinical outcome and treatment sensitivity. The impact of molecular subtypes on the pattern and site of relapse is largely unexplored. Methods: 677 patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer from the Shorther trial (n=437), the CherLOB trial (n=84) and two Institutional cohorts (Istituto Oncologico Veneto IRCCS Padova n=39 and Hospital Clinic Barcelona n=117) were included. Only patients with available PAM50 intrinsic molecular subtyping were considered. We analyzed the incidence of distant relapse (at any site and at specific sites) as the first event. Cumulative incidence was estimated according to competing risk analysis (Fine and Gray’s method). Competing risk regression was used to calculate the subdistribution Hazard Ratios (subHR) and their 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Results: The distribution of molecular subtypes was: 130 LumA (19%), 75 LumB (11%), 347 HER2-e (51%), 46 Basal (7%), 79 Normal (12%). Median follow up was 8.4 years (95%CI 8.2-8.6). The 10-yr cumulative incidence rates of distant relapse as first event were: LumA 7.9%, LumB 14.8%, HER2-e 14.7%, Basal 15.5%, Normal 10.4% (HER2-e vs LumA: SubHR 2.21, 95%CI 1.05-4.64, p=0.037). Table 1 shows the 5-yr and 10-yr cumulative incidence rates of distant metastases at specific sites (as first event) according to intrinsic subtype. HER2-e enriched and Basal tumors were more prone as compared to other subtypes to develop brain and lung metastasis as first event, respectively. Isolated brain metastases without extracranial disease occurred only in patients with HER2-e tumors. All brain metastases as first event occurred within 5 years from diagnosis. Bone-only disease as first event was less frequent in HER2-e and Basal subtype (subHR HER2-e vs LumA: 0.32, 95%CI 0.10-10.4. p=0.058). Next, we analyzed the frequency of site-specific first metastasis among patients who experienced a distant metastasis as first event (n=77). Lung metastases were more frequent in Basal tumors (LumA 25.0%, LumB 20.0%, HER2-e 24.4%, Basal 71.4%, Normal 0.0%, p=0.037) and bone metastases were more frequent in Luminal tumors (LumA 100.0%, LumB 60.0%, HER2-e 31.1%, Basal 42.9%, Normal 57.1%, p=0.006). Among 45 HER2-e patients with a first distant relapse, 25.6% were diagnosed with a brain metastasis and 15.6% had brain-only disease. Conclusions: Molecular subtypes influence the metastatic behaviour of clinically HER2-positive breast cancer. These results, if further validated, may have implication in planning personalized monitoring strategies.