Failure Probability Analysis of Levees Affected by Mammal Bioerosion

Burrowing mammals often find in levees a suitable habitat. Unfortunately, mammal dens can significantly compromise the functionality of levees by creating preferential flow paths for flood water seeping through the levee bodies, and by causing ultimately levee failures due to excessive seepage and internal erosion. In fact, many levee failures have been connected to the levee weakening caused by mammal dens. Mammal bioerosion significantly increases the failure probability of levees and the related flood risk in densely populated floodplains. Estimating the failure probability of levees affected by mammal bioerosion is therefore a relevant societal need. In the present study levee safety and failure conditions are estimated by combining a fully bivariate statistical description of peak flow discharge and flood duration with a computationally efficient unsteady seepage flow model. The resulting modeling framework incorporates the natural variability of floods and the essential hydraulic properties of disturbed/undisturbed levees. Model results reveal that the return period of levee failure due to excessive seepage reduces from 100 to 9 yr, namely of –91%, when the mammal den extends for 84% of levee thickness. These results can be used to inform levee design and maintenance programs for the safety of societies living in floodplains worldwide.