In this work, we give simple matrix formulae for maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in a broad class of vector autoregressions subject to Markovian changes in regime. This allows us to determine explicitly the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of the estimators, giving a concrete possibility for the use of the classical testing procedures. In the context of multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models with changes in regime, we provide formulae for the analytic derivatives of the log likelihood. Then we prove the consistency of some maximum likelihood estimators and give some formulae for the asymptotic variance of the different estimators.

ANALYSIS OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR MARKOV-SWITCHING VAR(CH) MODELS / Cavicchioli, Maddalena. - In: JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. - ISSN 0143-9782. - STAMPA. - 35:6(2014), pp. 624-639. [10.1111/jtsa.12085]

ANALYSIS OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR MARKOV-SWITCHING VAR(CH) MODELS

CAVICCHIOLI, MADDALENA
2014

Abstract

In this work, we give simple matrix formulae for maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in a broad class of vector autoregressions subject to Markovian changes in regime. This allows us to determine explicitly the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of the estimators, giving a concrete possibility for the use of the classical testing procedures. In the context of multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models with changes in regime, we provide formulae for the analytic derivatives of the log likelihood. Then we prove the consistency of some maximum likelihood estimators and give some formulae for the asymptotic variance of the different estimators.
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ANALYSIS OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR MARKOV-SWITCHING VAR(CH) MODELS / Cavicchioli, Maddalena. - In: JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. - ISSN 0143-9782. - STAMPA. - 35:6(2014), pp. 624-639. [10.1111/jtsa.12085]
Cavicchioli, Maddalena
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11380/1050315
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