The liaison between forecasting and inventory control represents a promising research field even if they have been often considered as independent problems. Otherwise, this paper follows a recent set of works that proved the importance of simultaneously considering both aspects. As a consequence, the choice of the best-performing approach should not consider only the accuracy of forecasts, but also the effects of forecasting methods on re-order policies. In particular, this paper deals with different periodic inventory control methodologies, with different lead times and safety stocks. The application to intermittent demand patterns is studied. The best Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) forecasting models are initially automatically identified by the TRAMO-SEATS software and results obtained are subsequently used for tuning periodic review inventory control approaches. The experimental analysis is performed on a real data set of 40 time series. A discrete-event simulation finally shows the obtained effects. Two features of this paper are remarkable. The former is that the intermittent data set is not pseudo-random generated and thus assumptions on the best-fitting demand distribution are not required. The latter regards the full automation of the TRAMO-SEATS software, which indicates its ability of being applied also in real industrial environments.

ON THE LIAISON BETWEEN FORECASTING AND PERIODIC INVENTORY CONTROL: APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS TO INTERMITTENT DEMAND PROFILES / Lolli, Francesco; Gamberini, Rita; Regattieri, A.; Rimini, Bianca; Morsiani, M.. - ELETTRONICO. - (2014), pp. 1426-1434. ((Intervento presentato al convegno 1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Sciences Optimization, OPT-i 2014 tenutosi a Kos Island (Greece) nel 4th-6th June.

ON THE LIAISON BETWEEN FORECASTING AND PERIODIC INVENTORY CONTROL: APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS TO INTERMITTENT DEMAND PROFILES

LOLLI, Francesco;GAMBERINI, Rita;RIMINI, Bianca;
2014

Abstract

The liaison between forecasting and inventory control represents a promising research field even if they have been often considered as independent problems. Otherwise, this paper follows a recent set of works that proved the importance of simultaneously considering both aspects. As a consequence, the choice of the best-performing approach should not consider only the accuracy of forecasts, but also the effects of forecasting methods on re-order policies. In particular, this paper deals with different periodic inventory control methodologies, with different lead times and safety stocks. The application to intermittent demand patterns is studied. The best Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) forecasting models are initially automatically identified by the TRAMO-SEATS software and results obtained are subsequently used for tuning periodic review inventory control approaches. The experimental analysis is performed on a real data set of 40 time series. A discrete-event simulation finally shows the obtained effects. Two features of this paper are remarkable. The former is that the intermittent data set is not pseudo-random generated and thus assumptions on the best-fitting demand distribution are not required. The latter regards the full automation of the TRAMO-SEATS software, which indicates its ability of being applied also in real industrial environments.
1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Sciences Optimization, OPT-i 2014
Kos Island (Greece)
4th-6th June
1426
1434
Lolli, Francesco; Gamberini, Rita; Regattieri, A.; Rimini, Bianca; Morsiani, M.
ON THE LIAISON BETWEEN FORECASTING AND PERIODIC INVENTORY CONTROL: APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS TO INTERMITTENT DEMAND PROFILES / Lolli, Francesco; Gamberini, Rita; Regattieri, A.; Rimini, Bianca; Morsiani, M.. - ELETTRONICO. - (2014), pp. 1426-1434. ((Intervento presentato al convegno 1st International Conference on Engineering and Applied Sciences Optimization, OPT-i 2014 tenutosi a Kos Island (Greece) nel 4th-6th June.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11380/1025915
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