Gear prognostics: A predictive algorithm for lifetime estimation of operating gearboxes

For the realization of optimized, effective gearboxes, both the set of design rules and the study of operation conditions, interconnected to each other, have to be taken into account. Condition monitoring is an essential tool when study of gearbox operation is tackled, and many techniques have been developed to detect the onset and the development of wear. However, these techniques fall short when prediction of gearbox conditions is concerned, as in the case of tracking the useful lifetime during operation. Within this framework, a prognostic software is developed and presented. This software is able to estimate the useful lifetime of a gearbox on the base of design features (safety factors and parameters), standards and codes (ISO) and realistic/measured load spectra, representative of the operation condition of the gearbox. This tool opens up the possibility of combining condition monitoring and prediction for a wider, comprehensive study of gearbox operation. Moreover, it potentially allows to detect machinery misuse and plan accurate usage-dependent maintenance in industrial environment.