In geophysical time series, such as daily temperatures, trends may be present due to global or to anthropogenic climatic changes. In this paper the quantitative estimation of the trend and of its statistical uncertainty is obtained by means of a fitting procedure, provided the stochastic behaviour of the time series has been previously determined, and the time random part of the time series is stationary. Moreover a detailed discussion on the reliability of the results is presented. The method has been tested with positive results on the minimum daily temperatures measured in Modena, Italy, since 1869.
Quantitative estimation of climatic changes in the daily temperatures / Marseguerra, Marzio; Menziani, Marilena; Morelli, Sandra; Pugnaghi, Sergio; Santangelo, Renato. - In: GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTROPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS. - ISSN 0309-1929. - STAMPA. - 13:(1979), pp. 273-283. [10.1080/03091927908243776]
Quantitative estimation of climatic changes in the daily temperatures
MARSEGUERRA, Marzio;MENZIANI, Marilena;MORELLI, Sandra;PUGNAGHI, Sergio;SANTANGELO, Renato
1979
Abstract
In geophysical time series, such as daily temperatures, trends may be present due to global or to anthropogenic climatic changes. In this paper the quantitative estimation of the trend and of its statistical uncertainty is obtained by means of a fitting procedure, provided the stochastic behaviour of the time series has been previously determined, and the time random part of the time series is stationary. Moreover a detailed discussion on the reliability of the results is presented. The method has been tested with positive results on the minimum daily temperatures measured in Modena, Italy, since 1869.
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