Italy has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.
A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamics in COVID-19 / Papo, D.; Righetti, M.; Fadiga, L.; Biscarini, F.; Zanin, M.. - In: CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS. - ISSN 0960-0779. - 140:(2020), pp. 1-6. [10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110157]
A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamics in COVID-19
Biscarini F.;
2020
Abstract
Italy has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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