In this note we evaluate the probability of extinction (EP) of the female offspring of two women: the one of the Paleolithic, the other of Italy today. In both cases it is assumed that possible extinction arises exclusively for the degree of fertility and / or for casual sex-ratio imbalance. EP is obtained as the probability that the Branching Process describing the evolution of the offspring by a progenitor degenerates in a “Blank Generation”, i.e. in our case. a generation without women. EP is the solution between 0 and 1 of a linear equation whose coefficients are the probabilities that progenitor has 0, 1, 2, ... daughters. We evaluated such probabilities by consulting literature. Of course, EP is also the probability of extinction of progenitor’s mitochondrial lineage.
DEMOGRAPHICAL EVOLUTION AND MITOCHONDRIAL LINEAGE EXTINCTION / D Amor, G.; Frederic, P.; Di Bacco, M.. - (2015). (Intervento presentato al convegno 21° CONGRESSO dell’Associazione Antropologica Italiana Towards a Next-Generation Anthropology: challenges & synergies tenutosi a Bologna and Ravenna , Italy nel September 3-5, 2015).
DEMOGRAPHICAL EVOLUTION AND MITOCHONDRIAL LINEAGE EXTINCTION
Frederic P.;
2015
Abstract
In this note we evaluate the probability of extinction (EP) of the female offspring of two women: the one of the Paleolithic, the other of Italy today. In both cases it is assumed that possible extinction arises exclusively for the degree of fertility and / or for casual sex-ratio imbalance. EP is obtained as the probability that the Branching Process describing the evolution of the offspring by a progenitor degenerates in a “Blank Generation”, i.e. in our case. a generation without women. EP is the solution between 0 and 1 of a linear equation whose coefficients are the probabilities that progenitor has 0, 1, 2, ... daughters. We evaluated such probabilities by consulting literature. Of course, EP is also the probability of extinction of progenitor’s mitochondrial lineage.
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