Nailfold Videocapillaroscopic and Other Clinical Risk Factors for Digital Ulcers in Systemic Sclerosis: A Multicenter, Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify nailfold videocapillaroscopic and other clinical risk factors for new digital ulcers (DUs) in a 6-month period in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), the videoCAPillaroscopy (CAP) study. METHODS: Overall 623 patients with SSc from 59 centers (14 countries) were stratified into two groups: "DU History" and "No-DU History". At enrollment, patients underwent detailed nailfold videocapillaroscopic evaluation and an assessment of demographics, DU status, and clinical and SSc characteristics. Risk factors for developing new DUs were assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the "DU History" group (n = 468), 79.5% were female, the mean age was 54.0 ± 13.7 years, 59.8% had limited cutaneous SSc, and 22% developed a new DU during follow-up. The strongest risk factors for new DUs identified by multivariable logistic regression (MLR) in the "DU History" group included: mean number of capillaries/mm in the middle finger of the dominant hand, number of DUs (0, 1, 2, ≥3), and presence of critical digital ischemia. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of the final MLR model was 0.738 (0.681-0.795). Internal validation through bootstrap generated a ROC-AUC (95% CI) of 0.633 (0.510-0.756). CONCLUSION: This international, prospective study including detailed nailfold videocapillaroscopic evaluation and extensive clinical characterization of patients with SSc identified the mean number of capillaries/mm in the middle finger of the dominant hand, number of DUs and presence of critical digital ischemia at enrollment as risk factors for the development of new DUs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.