GIS-based assessment of risk due to salt mining activities in the city of Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Ground subsidence triggered by salt mining from deposits located beneath the city of Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina) is one of the major dangers acting on a very densely urbanized area since 1950, when the salt deposit exploitation by means of boreholes began. As demonstrated in this paper, subsidence induced several hazard factors such as severe ground deformations, the arising of deep and superficial fractures and a very fast water table rise, connected with the brine extraction, now affecting several districts. The above mentioned factors have been quantified by the use of geomatic methodologies, including field surveys and analysis of geographical data. In order to estimate the historical sinking rates, authors processed the large (and never before processed) amount of topographical data collected during two periods; from 1956 to 1991, and from 1992 to 2003, with only poor data collected. Afterward, traditional surveys were completely and definitively stopped. The analysis reveals a cumulative subsidence as high as 12 m during the whole period, causing damage to buildings and infrastructures within an area that includes a large portion of the historical town, at present almost entirely destroyed. Modern sinking rates have been monitored with static GPS whereas the presence of superficial fractures monitored with kinematic GPS. Factors related to the presence of deep fractures and water table rise have been evaluated by curvature analysis techniques and piezometric data respectively. Finally, hazard factors have been combined in a risk map using the GIS (Geographical Information System) map algebra capabilities and a simple multicriteria decision analysis (MDA). In order to do that, a vulnerability map has been derived on the basis of information reported on a couple of recently sensed high resolution satellite imageries. The final risk, arisen from the combination of single hazard factors and vulnerability map, highlights critical scenarios and unsuspected threatening that are under consideration by the local decision makers and urban planners. In particular, as highlighted in the final risk map, the present-day water table rise, triggered by the decrease in brine pumping, is seriously posing a threat to a portion of the city which is not the most involved in ground deformations.